Bloomberg on Georgia
Aug. 12th, 2008 11:39 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
rizhi_fin Блумберг хорошо описал суть ситуации
By Janine Zacharia
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Russia's widening military campaign
in Georgia may end up threatening the U.S. strategic aims of
preventing Iran from building a nuclear bomb and securing
Central Asian energy supplies for Europe.
``A Russian-Georgian war will imperil U.S.-Russian
diplomacy no matter what,'' said Cliff Kupchan of New York-based
Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm. The U.S. and
European reactions will make Russia ``more obstinate at the
Security Council,'' where President George W. Bush seeks to
impose tougher United Nations sanctions on the Iranian
government, he added.
Georgia's role in a U.S.-backed energy corridor to Europe
for oil and natural gas from former Soviet areas of Central
Asia, a route that skirts Russia, also may be in doubt. That
strategy counted on Russia respecting Georgia's sovereignty.
Bush returned from China and expressed concerns that
Russian forces may be engaged in an effort ``to depose Georgia's
duly elected government.''
As Russian troops, backed by air power, pushed deeper into
Georgian territory yesterday, efforts by Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice and her European counterparts to broker a
cease-fire showed no sign of bearing fruit.
Peace Mission
The U.S. is backing a peace mission led by French Foreign
Minister Bernard Kouchner and Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander
Stubb, who will meet with Russian officials in Moscow today and
seek agreement on a package that includes a cease-fire. The
offer also calls for the withdrawal of Russian forces, the
dispatch of international observers to replace Russian
peacekeepers in Abkhazia and a pledge not to use force, a senior
U.S. official told reporters in Washington late yesterday.
The official likened Russia's military operation to past
Soviet invasions of Afghanistan and Czechoslovakia and said it
appeared the Russians were planning the incursion for some time.
American assumptions about Russian acquiescence in major
policy issues may now be undercut, said Stephen Sestanovich, a
senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies at the Council on
Foreign Relations in Washington.
The conflict is the ``first demonstration of Russian
military power to break one of the former Soviet states, and that
sort of gets to the stability of the framework that the U.S.
thought was going to govern the post-Cold War world,'' he said.
`No Leverage'
Kupchan said the U.S. now has ``virtually no leverage on
Russia.'' An envoy at a higher level than Deputy Assistant
Secretary of State Matt Bryza, whose area of interest includes
the Caucasus, should be sent to the region, he said.
Concerns about an outbreak of hostilities between Georgia
and Russia had been building among American policy makers.
In a visit last month to Tbilisi, the Georgian capital,
Rice said it was ``extremely important'' for the separatist
disputes in Abkhazia and South Ossetia to be resolved
peacefully. She cautioned that violence ``should not be carried
out by any party.''
Since the fighting erupted on Aug. 7, the U.S. has
criticized Russia for a disproportionate use of force.
Troops From Iraq
The U.S. is facilitating the return of as many as 2,000
Georgian soldiers from Iraq to Georgia -- a move Russian Prime
Minister Vladimir Putin criticized as ``interference'' --
without planning to commit any military support of its own,
according to officials.
If Russia topples Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili,
relations with the U.S. ``will be just that much worse,''
Kupchan said.
Beyond being a democratic ally, Georgia is a link in a
U.S.-backed southern energy corridor that connects the Caspian
Sea region with world markets, bypassing Russia. The BP Plc-led
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline is a major part of that route
and runs about 60 miles (100 kilometers) south of the South
Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali.
Robert Johnson, a specialist in energy at the Eurasia
Group, said Georgia's reputation as a viable, alternative route
for transporting oil and gas from Turkmenistan and elsewhere has
been ``compromised'' because of the conflict.
Georgian officials said Russia is seeking to oust
Saakashvili, while Russia said it was protecting the separatist
Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Goals `Achieved'
``Russia has achieved its goals,'' said Alexander Rahr, a
Russia specialist at the German Council of Foreign Relations in
Berlin. ``Georgia will not be able to reunite with its regions
in the coming decades.''
Russia was in part provoked by the U.S.-led push to bring
Georgia and Ukraine, both former Soviet satellites, into the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization. In April, Brussels-based
NATO committed itself to adding Georgia and Ukraine without
providing a timeframe or a clear path toward membership.
This pledge, along with the recognition of Kosovo's
independence by the U.S. and Western allies, angered Russia,
which is against further NATO expansion. The Russian invasion
may trouble pro-Western democracies the U.S. has cultivated in
the region.
Given the limited U.S. response so far in the Georgia
crisis, ``there's a lot more anxiety about the credibility and
value of American relationships, including security
relationships,'' Sestanovich said.
Ukraine Ties
The senior U.S. official who briefed reporters late
yesterday said Russia might be looking to take its war beyond
Georgia and signaled the U.S. will be announcing ways to
strengthen ties with Ukraine and other states of the former
Soviet Union.
The official predicted those states will be determined to
avoid losing the sovereignty won and maintained since the Soviet
collapse.
NATO will meet in emergency session today, the U.S.
official said.
While the U.S. ambassador to the UN, Zalmay Khalilzad, Vice
President Dick Cheney and other senior U.S. officials cautioned
Russia about damage to relations if it presses the assault on
Georgia, a top Russian official disagreed about the fallout.
``Russian-American relations have a very important value
for both our countries,'' Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin told
reporters at the UN late yesterday. ``We hope that without too
much further propaganda we can move to the core of the matter of
this difficult situation, and Russian-American relations will
not suffer.''
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Russia's widening military campaign
in Georgia may end up threatening the U.S. strategic aims of
preventing Iran from building a nuclear bomb and securing
Central Asian energy supplies for Europe.
``A Russian-Georgian war will imperil U.S.-Russian
diplomacy no matter what,'' said Cliff Kupchan of New York-based
Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm. The U.S. and
European reactions will make Russia ``more obstinate at the
Security Council,'' where President George W. Bush seeks to
impose tougher United Nations sanctions on the Iranian
government, he added.
Georgia's role in a U.S.-backed energy corridor to Europe
for oil and natural gas from former Soviet areas of Central
Asia, a route that skirts Russia, also may be in doubt. That
strategy counted on Russia respecting Georgia's sovereignty.
Bush returned from China and expressed concerns that
Russian forces may be engaged in an effort ``to depose Georgia's
duly elected government.''
As Russian troops, backed by air power, pushed deeper into
Georgian territory yesterday, efforts by Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice and her European counterparts to broker a
cease-fire showed no sign of bearing fruit.
Peace Mission
The U.S. is backing a peace mission led by French Foreign
Minister Bernard Kouchner and Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander
Stubb, who will meet with Russian officials in Moscow today and
seek agreement on a package that includes a cease-fire. The
offer also calls for the withdrawal of Russian forces, the
dispatch of international observers to replace Russian
peacekeepers in Abkhazia and a pledge not to use force, a senior
U.S. official told reporters in Washington late yesterday.
The official likened Russia's military operation to past
Soviet invasions of Afghanistan and Czechoslovakia and said it
appeared the Russians were planning the incursion for some time.
American assumptions about Russian acquiescence in major
policy issues may now be undercut, said Stephen Sestanovich, a
senior fellow for Russian and Eurasian studies at the Council on
Foreign Relations in Washington.
The conflict is the ``first demonstration of Russian
military power to break one of the former Soviet states, and that
sort of gets to the stability of the framework that the U.S.
thought was going to govern the post-Cold War world,'' he said.
`No Leverage'
Kupchan said the U.S. now has ``virtually no leverage on
Russia.'' An envoy at a higher level than Deputy Assistant
Secretary of State Matt Bryza, whose area of interest includes
the Caucasus, should be sent to the region, he said.
Concerns about an outbreak of hostilities between Georgia
and Russia had been building among American policy makers.
In a visit last month to Tbilisi, the Georgian capital,
Rice said it was ``extremely important'' for the separatist
disputes in Abkhazia and South Ossetia to be resolved
peacefully. She cautioned that violence ``should not be carried
out by any party.''
Since the fighting erupted on Aug. 7, the U.S. has
criticized Russia for a disproportionate use of force.
Troops From Iraq
The U.S. is facilitating the return of as many as 2,000
Georgian soldiers from Iraq to Georgia -- a move Russian Prime
Minister Vladimir Putin criticized as ``interference'' --
without planning to commit any military support of its own,
according to officials.
If Russia topples Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili,
relations with the U.S. ``will be just that much worse,''
Kupchan said.
Beyond being a democratic ally, Georgia is a link in a
U.S.-backed southern energy corridor that connects the Caspian
Sea region with world markets, bypassing Russia. The BP Plc-led
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline is a major part of that route
and runs about 60 miles (100 kilometers) south of the South
Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali.
Robert Johnson, a specialist in energy at the Eurasia
Group, said Georgia's reputation as a viable, alternative route
for transporting oil and gas from Turkmenistan and elsewhere has
been ``compromised'' because of the conflict.
Georgian officials said Russia is seeking to oust
Saakashvili, while Russia said it was protecting the separatist
Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Goals `Achieved'
``Russia has achieved its goals,'' said Alexander Rahr, a
Russia specialist at the German Council of Foreign Relations in
Berlin. ``Georgia will not be able to reunite with its regions
in the coming decades.''
Russia was in part provoked by the U.S.-led push to bring
Georgia and Ukraine, both former Soviet satellites, into the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization. In April, Brussels-based
NATO committed itself to adding Georgia and Ukraine without
providing a timeframe or a clear path toward membership.
This pledge, along with the recognition of Kosovo's
independence by the U.S. and Western allies, angered Russia,
which is against further NATO expansion. The Russian invasion
may trouble pro-Western democracies the U.S. has cultivated in
the region.
Given the limited U.S. response so far in the Georgia
crisis, ``there's a lot more anxiety about the credibility and
value of American relationships, including security
relationships,'' Sestanovich said.
Ukraine Ties
The senior U.S. official who briefed reporters late
yesterday said Russia might be looking to take its war beyond
Georgia and signaled the U.S. will be announcing ways to
strengthen ties with Ukraine and other states of the former
Soviet Union.
The official predicted those states will be determined to
avoid losing the sovereignty won and maintained since the Soviet
collapse.
NATO will meet in emergency session today, the U.S.
official said.
While the U.S. ambassador to the UN, Zalmay Khalilzad, Vice
President Dick Cheney and other senior U.S. officials cautioned
Russia about damage to relations if it presses the assault on
Georgia, a top Russian official disagreed about the fallout.
``Russian-American relations have a very important value
for both our countries,'' Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin told
reporters at the UN late yesterday. ``We hope that without too
much further propaganda we can move to the core of the matter of
this difficult situation, and Russian-American relations will
not suffer.''
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no subject
Date: 2008-08-13 10:56 pm (UTC)чтобы оценить конфликт, нужно обратиться к причинам..
и за каждой куклой всегда двигает за ниточки кукловод (с)
кому выгодна неразбериха? кому выгоден конфликт? кто пытается разместить про в европе и двигает нато к границе россии? кто жаждет ресурсов? у кого интересов больше: у америкосов в россии, или у россии к америкосам? и не говорите, что ваш миша не кукла мистера джорджа, собственно как наш дима дяди вовки.. но россия по крайней мере никого не подставляет.. а вас грузин подставили. ввели войска на грузинскую территорию? а что еще делать, терпеть все это безобразие? да и якобы мятеж осетинский тоже сомнительно.. а вот военные силы грузии в зону конфликта не за 1 день добрались, и не за 2.. ну ничего, запад грузинам поможет.. может быть, пока нужны... а как станут не нужны.. так и бросит. выход из снг - ход яркий, но бестолковый, ибо невыгоден прежде всего грузии. достаточно отследить некие тенденции и ходы сша в последние годы, а также ситуации на украине и грузии, как все стает на места.. честно говоря, не думал, что грузинский народ так аморфно воспринимает роль куклы.